Wales will become an independent nation state, and if the young people of Wales have their way it will be an independent nation state within the European Union within the next ten years.
Those are the key take outs from an opinion poll commissioned by campaign group Right To Vote and carried out by Populus earlier this month.
Eighteen months ago we wrote about the results of a YesCymru commissioned poll by YouGov showing that over a quarter of the people of Wales had a favourable view of independence.
That poll also showed us that 36% of people were in favour of independence in the event of the Conservatives winning the 2017 snap general election. Which they did.
We also said that the polling showed that Wales would be independent within a generation, based on the results of the responses of 18-49 year olds.
So what of the Populus poll?
Populus, the polling firm that carried out the poll in early January, are a well respected and long established polling company.
Looking at the age, social background, gender and Brexit responses, it’s clear that the sample is representative of the Welsh population. For instance 47% of respondents voted to Remain in the EU while 53% voted to Leave.
Brexit and Independence
Previous polling questions regarding independence have concentrated on whether or not the respondents thought that Wales should become an independent nation state.
The question posed by Populus/Right To Vote was different. It was whether or not respondents thought that Brexit makes it more or less likely that Wales would vote for independence in the next 10 years.
This is a far more specific question. It’s not a nebulous question about some time in the possible distant future. Neither is it a question on one’s ideology. It’s a question about confidence and political direction; and what’s more it poses a question about something that’s within our immediate reach – a 10 year time frame. This brings the matter into a much sharper focus. Responders were therefore quite clear that what they were answering was something that they could well influence and see happen … soon.
This leads to a completely different frame of mind, and, one could argue, provides a farm more realistic response.
51% of those between 18-34 believe that Wales is more likely to vote to become independent in the next 10 years
36% of all respondents said that it was more likely that Wales would vote to become independent.
But crucially 51% of respondents between the ages of 18-34 thought this to be the case, while only half that, 26% of respondents in that age range, thought it less likely that Wales would become independent in the next ten years (because of Brexit).
Contrast this with the fact that only 20% of those aged 65 or over thought that Wales was more likely to become independent in the next 10 years.
Wales, as we all know, voted narrowly to Leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. However, this poll shows us that Wales is no longer a Leave nation. When asked
“If a 2nd EU Referendum (a so-called People’s Vote) was called, after the UK Parliament has ruled out (i.e. voted against) ‘Theresa May’s Deal’ – with the following two options on the ballot – which way would you vote?”
(which is where we are at currently) 44% of respondents opted to Remain in the EU, with 42% choosing a No Deal exit. Again, the age difference is stark. 54% of 18-34 year olds opted to Remain in the EU more than twice the amount that chose No deal (25%), while on the other end of the age spectrum 63% of those over 65 chose to leave with no deal, while only 27% chose to remain in the EU.
We’ve heard over the last couple of years that the Independence movement in Catalunya and to a lesser degree in Scotland is driven by the wealthier classes (though we disagree with this assertion). In Wales, however, if anything the opposite is true. More people from the lower ‘socio-economic classes’ (DE) believe that it’s more likely that Wales will become independent in the next ten years because of Brexit – 40% – than in the higher classes (AB) – 28%.
This poll serves to reinforce the previous polls that show clearly that support for independence is increasing swiftly in Wales.
The results of independent polling by organisations which are not part of the British Establishment vary significantly from those promoted by the British Establishment’s own BBC, who’s form of words have been discredited.
It’s no wonder that young people in Wales support an independent Wales within the EU. Our savvy youngsters see the way that the EU respects Ireland during the Brexit negotiations. The EU member states, however large or small, are equal and have shown complete support to Ireland.
Wales and Scotland, however, have been completely ignored by the so called United Kingdom. The views and wishes of our legislative bodies have been snubbed absolutely, and we’re told that we are part of the United Kingdom and we should respect the views of England’s majority. This indeed is ‘for the many and not the few’.
The young people of Wales have seen the Irish economy bounce back from the crash of 2007/08 and compare this with the stagnating economy of Wales under UK rule.
The young people of Wales want to stand up and be counted. They’re not afraid of taking responsibility for their decisions. They want the opportunity to take those decisions and build a vibrant thriving country that can take its place shoulder to shoulder with the other nations of the world.
Let’s not deny them their right to their future. Let’s not hold them back any longer. The evidence shows that our youngsters are yearning for that freedom and those opportunities.
Unleash Wales, and let the world see what we can do. You won’t be disappointed.
The full results can be seen here.